Let me add a big qualifier here: the following line (through one half of play) is the Gold Standard, thus far, for players drafted in the 9th Round, and then unceremoniously dropped before they played a single game.

• Jason Terry:   60% FG, 100% FT, 1 3-Pointer made,  17 Pts., 1 Board, 3 Dimes, 4 Steals, 1 Block.

Mr. Terry is an 8-category contributor tonight, with half the game remaining.  Lights Out can defend his decision all he wants; I maintain, however, that he could desperately use a guy like Terry on his squad.  Furthermore, he secretly regrets this decision.

Maybe Terry was not a “system” player for him.  Maybe Terry didn’t fit into his “grand plans”.  When he lies awake at night, does Mr. Light ever realise that his grand plans need a shakeup?  For many years now, Mr. Light’s fantasy seasons have played out like the movie “Groundhog Day”;  a guaranteed declaration that “this is my year”, with each new season, is money in the bank.  The annual unfulfillment of this declaration is money in the bank also.  As is a laundry list of blunders, such as prematurely dropping the aforementioned Mr. Terry.

Just a few days into the season, the waiver wire has seen plenty of action in our league as teams try to fine tune their rosters.  My draft didn’t quite go as I would have liked, so I’ve made a few adjustments.

In general, I agree with what Mr. Flambo was saying in his most recent post: sometimes it’s folly to be rash in the beginning of the season. Some players just start slow, while others start smoking hot. These things usually balance out over the course of the season, so don’t be disappointed with a bad game here or there (like Ray Allen).

Here are the adjustments I’ve made to my team in Week 1:

Drops
Jason Terry - I didn’t really want to pick him in the draft, so he was the first to go. Mr. Flambo disagreed with my drop here, and promptly used his #2 waiver wire priority to pick him up. Maybe this was a little bit rash, but it is still a question if Terry can produce quality numbers now that Jason Kidd is running the show in Dallas.

Stephon Marbury - This gamble clearly didn’t work out. I cut my losses quickly here, but will still keep an eye on him in case he ends up on another team. I think if he gets playing time somewhere in the league, he will put up good numbers, and I think you gotta gamble with late round picks on some players that could end up playing like a mid-rounder. If he busts, then it’s usually not that hard to pick someone up who gets numbers similar to most other 11th- to 13th-round picks.

Andrea Bargnani - I didn’t really want him on my team, but took him in the last round as another big man (C) who could give me some 3s. At this point, it doesn’t look like I have a chance in 3s, so there’s no point in having Bargnani on the squad.

Adds
Andres Nocioni - Not much to say here. Picked him up because he was playing the next night and wanted to use that game to evaluate him. Will probably be the next to go.

Quentin Richardson - Dropped one Knick for another. I figure he could be a good source for 3s and STEALS in D’Antoni’s system. I figure he could possibly have some upside. Don’t know if he’s a good fit for the team overall, though. We’ll see.

Marc Gasol - I like this pickup. I’m not a big fan of rookies, but this guy has a lot of overseas experience. He’s a big body and a banger, and cold be a good source for BLKS and REBS. Also, he looks to get the bulk of minutes for the Grizz at C and had a double-double in his first game. Not bad. Definitely some upside here.

Moving forward, I’m bummed to see Baron Davis already struggling with injury. I didn’t particularly want him for that reason, but felt that I had to get him as the best available with my second pick. Hopefully it’s nothing that will persist throughout the season. I’m definitely keeping my eye on a few sleeper candidates, but can’t throw out any names now.

One lesson that fantasy hoops owners learn, or should learn, as the years of experience accumulate, is that rash or hasty judgments should not be made at the start of the season. Some players will stumble out of the blocks, and it is often unwise to give up on them prematurely.

Some players will be jettisoned prematurely after a bad outing or two. But as predictably as the setting sun, we can count on Lights Out do so something even more shocking- kicking Jason Terry to the curb before he has played a single game. Make no mistake, Terry is no fantasy superstar, his 15p, 4a 1-three debut attests to this. But his stellar percentages, combined with his workmanlike production in other areas, make him a bankable commodity on the back end of one’s roster. Why does Ray repeatedly make rash moves like this?

To be fair, I will briefly analyze the players I have jettisoned thus far:

Joakim Noah- the unveiling of the new season (and new starting lineup) made clear that Noah will be coming off the bench for now. If he tallied 30-35 minutes a game, he would likely be a serviceable, but not great, fantasy center. That does not appear to be in the cards at present. I am sure Noah will make future appearances on rosters in this league, perhaps mine included, but won’t stick around long anywhere until he gets a starting gig under Coach Del Negro.

Rafer Alston- his numbers have been serviceable in the past, but mostly when there have been injuries on the Rockets squad. His fg% is usually atrocious. Now the Rockets are healthy and have added another star who needs his touches. Alston’s numbers have been sub-par. If, or more probably when, Houston gets hit by injury, Alston’s numbers should jump and he may find a semi-permanent home. Nevertheless, I hesitated in making this selection, and jumped at the chance to trade Mr. Alston for Ray’s castoff.

I will briefly mention that Ray also dropped his boy Marbury. I might have done the same; although Ray knew there was uncertainty in drafting Marbury (minutes from D’Antoni?, a trade?), and maybe should have waited a little longer to see how this would play out.

As I mentioned in an earlier post, I was excited to have the first pick in the draft this year. I spent a reasonable amount of time (probably not enough) coming up with scenarios and trying to get a solid draft strategy in place. In fact, this year I felt I had the strongest draft strategy that I have had in several years.

Unfortunately, the execution of my draft strategy fell apart during the draft.

That said, I think I had decent draft and hope to improve it by picking up a sleeper or two off of the waiver wire over the course of the season. Hopefully my main guys stay injury free, and if so, I should be ok.

Here’s my self evaluation of my draft:

Round 1: Chris Paul
Can’t go wrong here. At this point, my strategy then becomes to make sure to be unbeatable in the two categories that CP dominates: assists and steals

Round 2: Baron Davis
Not my preferred choice here, as the three people I had targeted all got taken ahead of me. But if he stays healthy, I have a solid hold on assists and steals.

Round 3: Paul Pierce (back-to-back with #2)
At this point, I really would have liked to have a solid big man, but since the guys I had targeted were gone, I didn’t want to go too far down the draft sheets this early. Still, can’t complain with Paul Pierce. At this point I think I’m looking pretty good in assists, steals, and FT%, and not too shabby with 3s.

Round 4: Chris Kaman
Now I really needed a big man and I wanted to make sure I had someone who gets a lot of boards and a lot of blocks.

Round 5: Rasheed Wallace
My #2 center. Not a typical big man, but contributes in blocks, 3s, and also shoots a good FT%.

Round 6: LaMarcus Aldridge
Another big. Also doesn’t hurt FT%. Took a little chance with him, as Greg Oden’s entry to the lineup can hurt, but he’s shown good improvement, and I’m hoping for a good season here.

Round 7: Josh Howard
Needed to get someone at the SG spot and I like guys who can play two positions. Howard is a SG/SF, so he gives me some flexibility. A good scorer for this late in the draft, who contributes a little in all categories.

Round 8: Andrei Kirilenko
Another guy that contributes across the board. Gets some 3s, gets steals, good percentages, and will hopefully put up a lot of blocks this year. Might be coming off the bench, though, but I’m not too worried about Matt Harpring’s long term prospects at this point.

Round 9: Jason Terry
My worst pick of the draft. I was panicked here since again, the guys I had targeted all got taken before my pick, and I had to pick twice in a row. Kirilenko was ok, then I got strapped for time and took the highest guy available on the player rater. Mistake. I’ve already dropped him.

Round 10: Stephon Marbury
Possibly a terrible pick, but could have some upside. I recently read an article talking about how Starbury could possibly start. If so, this will be huge. If he gets traded, this could be huge. I like the upside a lot here, but it could also be a bust.

Round 11: Marvin Williams
I like getting Marvin here. He’s always improving, and I think this will be a good pick.

Round 12: Ryan Gomes
At this point, I didn’t really care too much who I got. But Gomes played well the second half of last year, and if he can contribute, I’m happy with that at this pick.

Round 13: Andrea Bargnani
Another big man who can shoot the three. Probably won’t be on my team for too long.

So that’s my team for now. I think I’m looking pretty good in FG%, FT%, AST, ST. But unfortunately, that’s not good enough. I think I have a reasonable shot at 3s, and can win BLOCKS and PTS occasionally, don’t have too much of a chance with REBS. In our league, you only need to win 5/8 categories to win for the week, so hopefully I can use some waiver wire magic or maybe make a trade to firm things up. We’ll see.

Hopefully, some of the other guys will talk about their draft in future posts. If not, then I may take a stab at a couple other teams

Looking foward to Day 1 tonight!

Our league always has our fantasy draft on the last Sunday before the season starts. This year, that means we draft this coming Sunday. Prior the draft, we have a draft lottery to determine the draft order. For us, the lottery took place this past weekend.

In general, I feel that I’ve been screwed in the lottery. By hook or by crook, I’ve had the last pick at least 4 times, and the only other ones I can remember are a number 7 pick and a number 2 pick. This year, providence was with me and I got my first ever number 1 pick.

Overall, there hasn’t been any evidence that a high pick in the draft automatically means good performance in the league. But I’m excited because I will be able to pick a superstar. There are plenty of great players in the league, but in terms of fantasy, the player rater shows that there are about 5 players that are really elite. These are the guys everyone wants on their team. These are the guys that you get excited about looking at their box scores. These are the guys that can average 30-5-5 or similar. These are the guys that other managers will trade their first round picks for (and then some!).

So I’m excited. I think this is my year.

Trash Talkers League 2008-2009 Draft Lottery Results:

1. Lights Out!
2. Yes, We Can
3. The Show
4. The Mighty
5. McLovin
6. Hamertime
7. Dark Knight
8. Cash Money
9. Aerial Flambuoyance
10. TME

With the news that Lights Out has secured the first pick in the annual Trash Talkers draft, analysts everywhere are scrambling to offer their insights and analysis of Mr. Light’s draft strategy.  Here is my prediction about how Ray’s draft will play out:

PICK #

1.  Allen Iverson.  Though some might consider this a bit of a reach,  Ray has always been a huge fan of the former Georgetown standout, who has shown no signs of slowing down in the mile-high city.

20 Andre Iguadola.  Ray figures you can’t go wrong with two AI’s.

21 Andre Miller.  Someone has to pass the ball to Iguadola, right?

40.  Steven Jackson.  Someone’s got to score a lot of points for Ray’s Warriors, now that Baron Davis is gone, right?

41. Andre Biedrins. Ray better grab a center, and Biedrins a is young Warrior with huge upside.

60.  David Lee.  Ray can’t believe his good fortune.

61.  Ryan Gomes.  Ditto

80.  Darko Milicic. Ray believes this youngster has finally arrived.

81.  Jeff Green.  What a steal, getting the former Hoya at this spot!

100.  Michael Sweetney.  Ditto.

101.  Damon Jones.  Ray feels this selection will lock up 3’s for his squad.

120.  Josh Childress.  Ray can’t believe that the other idiots allowed him to slip this far.

121.  JJ Redick.  Did you see this guy in college?  He was sick!